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Two Portents of the Future Web

In a mix of both good and bad news, the sites jennicam.org and Blogshares have closed down (the latter) or will be shortly (the former; 12/31/2003). These are each pioneering sites in their own way.

The good news is that these two folks - basically, in each case, one person - brought something fairly new/fresh to the Net (or took a concept to the next level). It was embraced, widely copied, and ultimately brought down by its own success. The latter point, especially, points to the high penetration the Net is getting.

The bad new is similar, ironically: The high penetration of the Web is bringing down sites (the slashdot effect) and creating unrealistic transfer rates for the average dude with a concept. Back in 1996 when the Jennicam went up, it was a cool idea (I've no idea if hers was the first - doubt it) and it brought traffic. But not enough to crash her server or what have you.

So the real downside here is that it is looking harder for an individual with an idea - be it a guy in London with a blog or a woman with a webcam - to make something successful that will last.

As soon as it gets popular enough to, say, get enough traffic to pay the bills (either via PayPal contributions or ads), the traffic gets high enough to cost more and require more site maintenance.

So, are we seeing the end of the popular independent sites? I don't know, but I hope not...