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2007 Prognostications

I was sick this week, which delayed me putting these up, but also because I was trying to take a closer look at the matters that would really matter to the average user, which I didn't focus on in my 2006 prognostications.

Last year, I focused more on big-picture stuff (No real Linux gains on desktop, Google everywhere etc.).

This year, I want to focus more on the issues that will affect the average user - the non-geek - as well as matters that will effect only the geeks/tech financiers this year, but will affect the Average Joe down the road.

Without any further ado:

• Google, Google Everywhere: This will be another big year for Google, and this has a significant impact on regular web users: As more and more articles recently are pointing out, Google - due to its omnipotence - is becoming less a company and more of an environment users find themselves in. Look at it this way: AOL was famous for their "walled garden" approach to the "web" - yet, if you were forced to, you could almost live in a Google walled garden. Get mail on Gmail, open attachments and modify with Google Documents. Blog with Google's blogger. Store, modify, upload picutes with Google's Picasa, upload videos to Google's YouTube.com Make purchases through Froogle/Google base - but if you had to use a third party (clothes from Land's End, for exp.), you could use Google checkout to actually purchase the item (which you found, of course, via Google's organic or AdSense search results). Getting the environment picture? On a more immediate level, Google will continue to consolidate its products so single logins are the rule. Will this become the dream of Microsoft's Passport?
  Update 1/6/2008: I think I've pretty much nailed this one, not that this was a tough guess. But with Google in all their old stuff plus getting into cell phones (700MHz auction; Android software), they are everywhere.


• Apple will continue its winning ways: Expect an Apple phone, some damn fast laptops and potentially an Itunes agreement with Apple records - yes, the Beatles. Apple will also stumble in one major way, either due to a flaw that exposes its now largish base (for its OS X software) or a new product/update that just, basically, sucks.
  Update 1/6/2008: Again, not a tough one, but I got it - the iPhone appeared (to great fanfare), and Apple did mess up: The OS X Leopard update created lots of problems for many people.


• Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD wars continue: Everyone is losing on this battle: Consumers are either waiting (deprived of HD) or buying into a format that may not make it. This is keeping sales down/non-existent, which is hurting studios and electronics manufacturers. The three fixes proposed thus far -- Studios support both formats; dual HD disc players; a a combo Blu-ray/HD-DVD disc -- are not solutions. All add costs/complexities that will be passed along to consumers. As the web has taught us, standards are cost-effective and lead to higher adoption rates. I just don't see a standard (either Blu-ray or HD-DVD) by the end of 2007, but I've been wrong before. (Side note: In the past, I've predicted Blu-ray winning the battle; today, I see HD-DVD having the upper hand. I think a lot depends on which media center finally catches on, and which format it supports.)
  Update 1/6/2008: This is a wash, I'd say, because just a couple of days ago - after the New Year - Warner announced exclusive support for Blu-ray. This, to me, effectively ends the format war.


• Flat-screen TV sales rocket: Flat-panel sales will do better - as a percentage increase - in 2007 than in 2006. One downside: The technology is still confusing. People will buy any FLAT screen TV thinking it's High Def; people will buy actual (low-end) 720p HD TVs and then wonder why the 1080p (capable) HD player/disc looks so much better at the store than at home...
  Update 1/6/2008: Another no-brainer that's correct.


• E-mail continues to be a disaster: I live and die by e-mail, but I only fire up my home e-mail every other day or so. I gather roughly 1,000 spam messages for 10 good ones, of which only 2-3 are non-newsletter/Amazon ads per day. E-mail is still necessary, but it definitely a necessary evil at this point. It'll get worse this year.
  Update 1/6/2008: I'll call this a wash because it doesn't seem worse per se, just still sucks. Still broken.


• The Net Stays Neutral: While the debate will continue, the toll booths will not be erected in 2007. This is due, in part, to the ATT mergers: I believe part of the merger approvals were tacit aggreements by the telcos to not touch this subject for a year or two (all conjecture, by the way).
  Update 1/6/2008: While there were, uh, incidents (Comcast "shaping" traffic), for the most part things continued as they did in the past.


• Wireless Gets Interesting: Although the 802.11n spec is not yet ratified, companies have said they are going to start making chips for these. This will have the greatest impact in notebooks and - especially - phones. (For desktop networking - home or office - b or g suffices, for the most part).
  Update 1/6/2008: I got this wrong. With the exceptions of the wireless capabilities of the iPhone and Amazon's Kindle, wireless was pretty boring in 2007.


• Some major store will stop sending out paper catalogs: We get Penny's here - the big ass ones, not the 32-pg Spring Mailer or what have you. For example, I get a nice, thick glossy catalog from B & H Camera about four times a year because I've ordered from them. Nice catalogs, fun to quickly thumb through - but I toss into the recycling bin after five minutes. If I want to buy from them, I'll do as I have in the past: Search online and buy online. Faster and easier. I expect some major catalog sender to put an end to the big dead-tree distribution.
  Update 1/6/2008: Righto - Penny's now sends a postcard telling you you can pick up the catalog in store. I can't speak to other retailers, but this is the start of a big change.


• Blogs play a huge roll in political campaigns: I know, we're only a couple of months past the 2006 elections, but no on seems to have bothered to tell that to the potential 2008 candidates (will be larger in 2008, obviously, but we'll feel the disturbance in the force in 2007). Blogs will make a big difference in the elections, in two ways: More candidates will embrace the web/blogs in a meaningful way (not just having a blog to have a blog), and the political blogs - right/left/middle etc - will receive huge traffic. I see mash-ups using Google maps to follow the candidates and provide informational balance to the campaign. I also see mash-ups creating a new type of political blog/wiki - a virtual scorecard of the candidates: For example, which Presidential candidate has come out in favor of/against abortion? List by rank, drill through to videos/transcripts/releases supporting same. Updated in virtually real time to show changes in stance and so on. Do that nationally to see how your representative feels about this subject, how your senator does, how they've voted, pointers to MSM and blog stories etc. Powerful.
  Update 1/6/2008: While Josh Marshall (in particular) and others have influenced MSM reporting and kept on stories that would have otherwise been ignored, what I thought would happened hasn't yet. It still may before the election, but I'm not seeing it yet. I'll say I missed this one.


• Cell phones expand functionality; remain unusable (for these fancy-ass features) to masses: Much like Linux on the desktop, phone makers have done a great job of adding features; a really crappy job of making it easy to use said features. If Apple does (as I've predicted above) come out with a phone...it'll be interesting. Take that Mac usability and integrate with phone. I think this is very doable - right now, the rush in phone upgrades is to add more features, instead of adding features you might like or have a frickin' clue on how to find/work. UI is hard; Apple is very good at UI.
  Update 1/6/2008: Righto


• Zillow will be purchased: Zillow is one of the best-kept secrets in the mash-up world. The Average Joe has no idea Zillow exists; the savvy web user will use Zillow and thank public data/APIs. Google is the natural purchasers of this property; a dark horse is the National Association of Realtors. Think about it -- it makes sense.
  Update 1/6/2008: Nope, and the company received additional funding this year. I'm still surprised....


• Big legal year for the Net/Software: The impact of this year's litigations may take a spell to affect the average user, but I think this year will be rich in the various types of legal issues: DRM, copyright, software patents, privacy issues, who is legally responsible for content (ex: kiddie porn - who shot it, who participated in it, who's parents of the kiddies, who posted it, who hosted it, who saw it, who downloaded it and so on - and who did so unwittingly or not. What are the rules?)?
  Update 1/6/2008: Oh yeah. Litigation seemed more the rule than the exception - and it doesn't look like it'll get any better in the near future. Probably worse.


• No cyber-terrorism: Sure, some sites will be DOSSed and hacked, but no pulling down of the Net.
  Update 1/6/2008: No cyber-terrorism to speak of.