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Prognostications 2006

OK, let's start this year off with something that will make me look silly at the end of the year - whoo hoo! (View my 2005 Prognostications Scorecard.)

Without any further ado, my (mostly tech) prognostications for 2006:

• Google, Google Everywhere: Google will continue its ubiquitous presence on all things Internet in the coming year. Google will continue to roll out a handful of projects this year, but one will be huge - one that changes the way we approach things on the Internet (much as Google Maps did. How did we put up with Mapquest?), probably in a very big way. (Which one? I dunno...but I think there will be a networking debut that will make a big splash.)


• Another bad year for security: I don't know the answers for all the ills of the internet (and if I did, I wouldn't tell you), but I don't see things getting better, overall, in 2006. I don't expect anything dramatic (cyberterrorism!!), but just a slow increase in the baggage of spam, phishing, viruses and so on that we have today - which is worse than we had at the end of 2004.


• Another solid year for Apple: Last year, I predicted a decline for Apple. Boy, was I wrong. Let's see if I do better this year. (UPDATE: Last year I prognosticated a decline for both Apple and Sun; for the latter, I said Sun would still not figger out how to make money on Java. I was right in 2005 [re: Java], I expect to be correct in 2006 [re: Java], as well.)


• Privacy concerns grow: Between fighting the War on Terror through increased reliance on computers/networking (with their hackability) to phishing type schemes and RFID tools (for clothes, toll booths and so on), our personal privacy is shrinking. This is now alarming more than just the so-called alarmists. I think this is going to get worse before it gets better - just look at the recently uncovered Executive Branch spying program. While much of the debate is over whether said programs are legal, it still leaves one with the impression that there is probably a heck of a lot more going on than we know about. By our government, other governments, employers, cybercrimminals and so on. Welcome home, Mr. Orwell...


• Web Services Gain Focus: This whole Web 2.0 talk, to me, is really a bunch of crap. It's like someone has created a label and is now looking for something to stick it on. Web services used to mean strictly online apps (like salesforce.com) or SOAP and or AJAX apps, which required extensive user-side coding and open APIs on the vendor end. But today it also means, basically, any Internet-based data/app that you (the end-user/client) don't totally own. For example, I'm writing this on Blogger, via a browser. I'll then post it to my site. This blog text itself (and the templates) is only a part of my blog; I have other tools (homegrown) that I use to enhance this area. But Blogger is a Web Service, as far as I'm concerned. This area will see a big explosion this year, as APIs are opened a la Google Maps, or useful online servies such as Flickr (purchased by Yahoo! in 2005) appear or existing properties are made useful.


• Bold Prediction: Microsoft Vista will be released this year: Yes, it's scheduled for release late this year, but this is Microsoft. I'm betting it will come out in time to get on new computers for the holidays, but will be - in some ways - a crippled version: Lacking promised features. This is the only way it'll get on holiday computers. Early 2007 Vista SP1 will make it the Vista that was spozed to be initially delivered. (Hell, they already jettisoned the new file system to get it out only ... years late...)


• Online Advertising Will Continue to Kill Traditional Advertising: Duh. Google and Yahoo combined (with Craigslist and Monster) are killing traditional advertising. There are two (main) results of this: Traditional media should attempt to adapt (they won't, not this year); 2) This advertising sea-change will cripple a lot of traditional media. Meaning magazines and newspapers will suffer tremendously (TV won't, not to that degree [this year] ). Pay-for-click advertising will continue to grow, and will affect - to a degree - traditional forms of advertising. Take TV commercials: Customers pay based on a show's past performance (with some contractual language of viewer guarantees and so on). Why? Why not pay on the number of viewer for the given show that night? For the 18-24 year-old males/females and so on? Pay per view? Why not?


• Intellectual Property Rights Will be Hot Issue: This is another one of those areas where things are going to get worse before they get better. One the one hand, you have older companies (movie studios, for example) struggling - sometimes correctly (to me, the old Napster was stealing. I've always said that) - against the bits vs. atoms approach to content delivery. On the other hand, you're going to have companies - like SCO - trying to use (alleged) IP to keep the company alive because technology has changed, and they have not. It's complicated, not pretty and going to get uglier. Super....


• Another Internet Growth Year: I mean this in the sense of money going into internet projects, startups and so on. 2007 might see a correction (not as bad as 2000), but 2006 will be pedal to the metal. There will be a lot of action, a lot of it - in hindsight - incredibly bone-headed.


• People Hang Up on Dial-Up: For the most part, only two groups of people will have dial-up (on purpose) at the end of the year: Ma & Pa Kettle (need only for e-mail or to check an e-mail only bill); people who can't get some type of broadband.


• Blu-Ray Wins over HD-DVD: Since all but Microsoft/Intel have agreed to support Blu-Ray, it wins. Game over.


• Digital Cameras Improve: Digital cameras will get smaller, lighter, cheaper and give higher-quality pictures. The interfaces, manuals and tools to actually get a digital print will remain unbelievably difficult for all but the geekiest or most determined. Paging Jakob Nielsen....


• Linux Will Not Make Significant Inroads on the Desktop: Getting closer (with better Open Office and improved KDE), but the lack of Mac like "magic installs" or Windows Wizards will hamper acceptance (what's a config file??). The battle between KDE and Gnome has hurt Linux on the desktop/laptop - and Linus Torvalds has finally weighed in, but that's probably not the end of it.

Overall?

It's going to be a busy year, but it seems like a lot of the action will be in the boardroom, courtroom and court of public opinion, and not an impressive amount of new, breathtaking technology.

Hopefully, I'll be way wrong!