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For those who have not noted it yet, today is the 20th anniversary of the release of the IBM PC.

While this was in no way the first PC -- even IBM does not claim this distinction (most give the nod to Altair, a kit-based machine designed by a medical doctor) -- it validated the PC. If IBM (whose initials could stand for I'm a Business Monster) thought the PC was worth building and selling, that meant that business sure as hell should consider the PC a worthwhile -- correction -- NECESSARY business purchase.

Yes, Altair and the Trash 80's lead the pack, and the Apple II really set the tone for the personal computer.

But it was the backing of a monolithic company, one dedicated to computing for business, to make business sit up and take notice.

If a couple of long-hairs operating out of a garage somewhere in the near-desert of California (and factor in all the anti-California bias carried by many WASP CEOs) said they needed to get on a computer, how many CEOs would listen?

Few.

If IBM announces that it is the age of the PC -- that it would help business be productive -- well, hell, those same wingtip-footed managers would sit up and take notice.

And they did.

This is one crucial piece of the PC puzzle that many miss: Yes, the Apple II was first; it may have been better than the IBM PC.

But it was only marginally for business. It was for people who thought computer technology was cool.

Does the manager of an asphalt plant think computer technology is cool?

Nope.

He's worried about business. But he might be a "techie," and he might buy a computer for home use, just to mess around.

And he'd buy an Apple II -- IF he could afford it.

It was not a computer that you had to have.

When IBM introduced its unit, it targeted to a larger degree businesses. IBM, after all, was a business-oriented company. IBM was business.

And the companies it sold mainframes (down to the puny -- yet still highly effective AS/400) to had lots of money to spend.

IBM said PCs would help business.

Businesses listened.

Business bought.

And suddenly the guy at the asphalt plant who wasn't a techie but may have/may not have been interested in computers came in one morning and found this spanking new machine on his desk.

Attached to it was a note from his boss telling him to learn/use the thing.

And this computer is not an Apple II like he may/may not have at home.

It's an IBM PC.

Multiply this by thousands, toss in Apple's consistent idiocy in licensing their OS, add PC clones -- due to IBM's lack of foresight -- and you have a revolution that put the IBM-clone PC smack in the middle of all this craziness that we call the personal computer revolution.

That led to the success of the World Wide Web (think Mr. Asphalt and his ilk would be large enough in numbers to connect to the Internet via this protocol unless it was forced upon them)? Learn at work because you have to; use at home because you want to.

Nope.

And business became -- slowly, then quickly -- very computer centric.

And IBM clones -- no longer the province of IBM, but more the spawn of Microsoft and Intel -- were at the very center of that computer-centric world.

And they still are.

Bottom line:

• One used an Apple because one thought technology was cool and fun. One purchased an Apple for home use.
  
• One used an IBM clone because one had to: Work purchased it and you used it there as part of your job. If you purchased a PC for home, you purchased an IBM clone. Why? Because you already knew the software. Even if Apple's were better/cooler/easier, why add to the learning curve?
  

People still don't get it, but the same thing that happened with the PC is happening to the Web.

• Initially, cool thing to do (Apple flavored)
  
• Technically challenging; geeks needed (Apple flavored)
  
• New browsers/OSs introduced; bring it to the masses (Apple/IBM flavored)
  
• Web levels the playing field: IBM has a Web site; so does Mr. Asphalt. Both have a URL. (Apple flavored)
  
• March/April 2000. Dot-com bomb. "non-sustainable business model" is culprit (IBM flavored)
  
• 2001 Q1 & Q2: More dot-coms wither on the vine. "Free" services disappear. (IBM flavored)
  
• Web consultancies die/take hits as the number of Web sites dwindle. (IBM flavored)
  
• While layoffs from dot-coms continue to rise, IT spending/hiring is still strong. Why? Real businesses (not www.myfavoritecars.com) finally see the value of Web-enabling their services or using Web to connect company less-expensively than with legacy systems. (IBM flavored)
  
• FUTURE: Some small sites survive; some Internet pure-players (think Amazon) survive and florish; more business is shifted to the Web; much of this Web-based business is not available to average user. TCP/IP yes; available to all like in the old days, no (VERY IBM flavored).
  

Gross generalizations?

Sure!

Highly accurate still?

Sure!

And I could be wrong.

And I doubt it.